If elections were held today, incumbent MP Innocent Mugabe would be the overwhelming favourite to retain his seat, with his supporters confidently putting his support at more than 70 per cent.His challengers, according to this political reading of the constituency, would be left fighting over the remaining 30 per cent.
While the figures are not based on a scientific opinion poll, they capture what Mugabe’s camp sees as a growing political advantage ahead of the 2027 General Election.At the centre of the incumbent’s campaign is one powerful message: development speaks louder than political noise.
Mugabe’s supporters point to projects undertaken through the Likuyani NG-CDF, particularly in the education sector, as evidence that the MP has delivered tangible results.Several schools across Likuyani have benefited from infrastructure improvements, including terrazzo works, while Eshikulu Boys Secondary School’s multi-storey building has emerged as one of the projects being used to showcase the incumbent’s development record.
Photo|Likuyani NG-CDF Project
For Mugabe’s supporters, these are not merely projects on paper, they are visible structures that voters can see every day.Security is also becoming part of the incumbent’s political scorecard.
The development and improvement of police posts at Mbururu and Nzoia have been cited by his supporters as another indication of the NG-CDF’s role in strengthening security infrastructure within the constituency.The political argument from the Mugabe camp is therefore straightforward: why replace an MP whose projects are visible on the ground?But the 2027 race is far from over.
Photo|New Mbururu Police Post
Among those seeking to challenge Mugabe is veteran politician Evans Taracha, who has remained active in Likuyani politics for years but has yet to capture the parliamentary seat.Taracha’s political journey includes previous electoral battles, including the 2017 contest in which he was defeated by the late Enock Kibunguchy.
Another name in the emerging contest is Deberious Shikuku, who has also positioned himself as a potential challenger.However, Mugabe’s supporters argue that neither challenger has demonstrated enough political strength or constituency-wide impact to dislodge the incumbent.That is where the battle for 2027 gets interesting.
Mugabe is seeking to transform his development record into a political shield, while his opponents must convince voters that they can offer something significantly better.For now, the incumbent appears to have the momentum.
The challengers may have the ambition, the networks and the political experience but Mugabe has something every incumbent wants heading into an election, a record he can point to.If that record resonates with voters across Likuyani, the 2027 election could become less about who wants Mugabe’s seat and more about who can actually stop him.The race has started. And if the current political mood is anything to go by, Mugabe is already running several metres ahead.